Expected value is a fundamental concept in poker that is used to help players make decisions. It is a measure of how much a player can expect to win or lose in a given situation, and it takes into account all possible outcomes.
To calculate expected value, you need to first identify all of the possible outcomes of a hand, and then assign a value to each one based on the likelihood of it occurring. The sum of these values is the expected value.
For example, let’s say you’re holding a flush draw after the flop. There are nine possible outcomes:
1) You hit your flush on the turn or river and win the hand.
2) You miss your flush and lose the hand.
3) You hit your flush on the turn, but someone else has a higher flush and they win the hand.
4) You hit your flush on the river, but someone else has a higher flush and they win the hand.
5) You miss your flush on the turn, but make a pair or something else on the river and win the hand.
6) You miss your flush on the turn, but make a pair or something else on the river and lose the hand.
7) You hit your flush on the turn, but someone else has a higherflush and they win the hand with a better kicker.
8) You hit your flush onthe river, but someone else has a higherflush and they win the hand with a better kicker.
9) You miss your flush altogether and lose the hand.
The expected value of this situation is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability, then adding up all of those values. So in this example:
PRO TIP:Expected value in poker can be calculated by multiplying the probability of winning a hand by the amount of money you stand to win, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount of money you stand to lose. In other words, when deciding whether to call or fold, calculate your expected value by taking into account both the potential reward and risk.
(1 x 0.24) + (2 x 0.52) + (3 x 0.12) + (4 x 0.
12) + (5 x 0.01) + (6 x 0.01)+ (7 x 0.008)+ (8×0.008)+ (9×0)= EV .
The EV here is positive, so in this instance it would be correct to call with your flush draw – you can expect to make money in the long run if you do so. However, if your EV was negative then it would be incorrect to call, as you would be expected to lose money over time if you did so.
Expected value is thus a helpful tool that can be used to make decisions in poker, by taking into account all possible outcomes of a given situation and assigning values to them based on their likelihoods.
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