Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world. It’s a game of skill and luck that requires players to make quick decisions based on their hand and the dealer’s upcard.
One of the decisions that players are faced with is whether or not to take insurance. But is blackjack insurance a good bet? Let’s take a closer look.
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First, let’s define what blackjack insurance is. When the dealer has an ace as their upcard, players have the option to take insurance.
Insurance is a side bet that pays out 2:1 if the dealer has a blackjack. The idea behind taking insurance is to protect your original bet in case the dealer has a blackjack.
On the surface, taking insurance seems like a good idea. After all, if the dealer does have a blackjack, you’ll get paid out 2:1 on your side bet and you won’t lose your original bet. But there are some things to consider before taking insurance.
The first thing to consider is the odds of the dealer having a blackjack when they have an ace as their upcard. There are only four cards in a deck (10, J, Q, K) that will give the dealer a blackjack when they have an ace as their upcard.
That means there are 13 cards that won’t give them a blackjack. So, the odds of them having a blackjack are roughly 30%.
Next, let’s look at how much you stand to lose by taking insurance compared to not taking it. If you don’t take insurance and the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, then you’ll lose your original bet if your hand isn’t better than theirs. If you do take insurance and they don’t have a blackjack, then you’ll lose your side bet but still have a chance to win your original bet.
However, if you do take insurance and they do have a blackjack, then you’ll get paid out 2:1 on your side bet but still lose your original bet. So, you’ll break even on that round of play. But over time, taking insurance will cost you money because of the 30% odds of the dealer having a blackjack.
Another thing to consider is how much you stand to win or lose overall if you always take insurance or never take it. Let’s say you’re playing at a table with a minimum bet of $10 and you’re playing 100 hands per hour.
If you always take insurance, then you’ll be betting an additional $5 per hand (since insurance pays out at 2:1). That means over the course of an hour, you’ll be betting an additional $500.
If the dealer has a blackjack 30% of the time when they have an ace as their upcard, then you’ll win the insurance bet ($10) 30 times and lose it ($5) 70 times. That means you’ll win $300 and lose $350 over the course of an hour. On top of that, if your original bets aren’t winning enough to cover those losses, then taking insurance will end up costing you more in the long run.
On the other hand, if you never take insurance, then over time you’ll lose less money because there are fewer opportunities for the dealer to have a blackjack and cost you both your original bet and your side bet.
In conclusion, while taking blackjack insurance may seem like a good idea at first glance, it’s not a good long-term strategy for winning at blackjack. The odds are against you and taking insurance will end up costing you more money in the long run. It’s best to stick to basic strategy and not take insurance unless absolutely necessary based on the cards dealt.
