Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world. It’s fast-paced, exciting, and offers players the chance to win big money. However, winning at blackjack is not just about luck.
It requires skill, strategy, and an understanding of the odds. One way to gain an edge over the casino is by counting cards. In this article, we’ll explore what blackjack odds are when counting cards.
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Counting Cards: A Brief Overview
Counting cards is a strategy used by skilled blackjack players to gain an advantage over the casino. The idea behind card counting is simple: keep track of which cards have been played and use that information to make better decisions on future hands.
The most common card counting system is called Hi-Lo. In this system, each card in the deck is assigned a value: 2-6 = +1, 7-9 = 0, 10-Ace = -1. The player keeps a running count of these values as each card is played.
When the count is high (i.e., there are more high cards left in the deck), it’s more likely that the player will be dealt a winning hand. When the count is low (i., there are more low cards left in the deck), it’s more likely that the dealer will win.
What Are Blackjack Odds When Counting Cards?
When you’re playing blackjack and using a card counting system like Hi-Lo, you can calculate your expected return based on your knowledge of the remaining cards in the deck.
For example, let’s say you’re playing a single deck game with Hi-Lo and there are 20 cards left in the deck (10 high-value cards and 10 low-value cards). Your running count is +5 (meaning there have been five more low-value than high-value cards played). Based on this information, you can estimate your expected return for your next hand.
If you’re dealt a 10 or an Ace, you’ll have a blackjack and win 1.5 times your bet. There are 4 Aces and 16 ten-value cards left in the deck, so your chances of getting a blackjack are:
(4/20) + (16/20) * (5/15) = 0.367 or 36.7%
If you’re dealt a hard 17 (i., no Ace), your chances of winning the hand are:
(16/20) * (4/15) = 0.213 or 21.3%
If you’re dealt a hard 12, your chances of winning the hand are:
(4/20) * (15/51) + (16/20) * (36/51) = 0.391 or 39.1%
As you can see, your expected return varies depending on the hand you’re dealt and the cards remaining in the deck.
The Importance of Penetration
One factor that affects the blackjack odds when counting cards is penetration. Penetration refers to how deeply into the deck the dealer deals before shuffling.
The deeper the penetration, the more accurate your count will be and the more likely you’ll be able to make profitable decisions based on it.
For example, if a dealer deals through half of a six-deck shoe before shuffling, that’s a penetration of 50%. If they deal through three decks before shuffling, that’s a penetration of only 25%.
The higher the penetration, the better your odds will be when counting cards.
Conclusion
Counting cards is not easy, but it can give skilled players an edge over the casino. By keeping track of which cards have been played and using that information to make better decisions on future hands, players can improve their expected return and increase their chances of winning at blackjack.
However, it’s important to note that card counting is not illegal, but it is frowned upon by casinos. If you’re caught counting cards, you may be asked to leave the casino or even banned from playing blackjack altogether.
In summary, the odds of winning at blackjack when counting cards depend on a variety of factors, including the card counting system used, the remaining cards in the deck, and the penetration of the shoe. With practice and skill, however, players can gain an edge over the casino and increase their chances of winning big at blackjack.
