If you’re a fan of blackjack, you’ve probably heard the term ‘EV’ thrown around before. But what does it actually stand for, and why is it important?
EV stands for ‘expected value.’ In blackjack, expected value is a statistical calculation that represents the average outcome of a particular decision over the long term. It takes into account all possible outcomes and assigns a probability to each one, based on the rules of the game and the cards that are in play.
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So how does EV relate to blackjack strategy? Well, in order to make the most profitable decisions at the table, it’s important to understand which actions have the highest expected value.
For example, hitting on a hand of 16 when the dealer is showing a 10 has a negative expected value – meaning that over time, this decision will result in an overall loss. On the other hand, standing on a hand of 20 has a positive expected value – meaning that over time, this decision will result in an overall gain.
Of course, calculating expected values for every possible scenario at the blackjack table would be an impossibly complex task. However, there are certain basic strategies that have been developed based on EV calculations and statistical analysis. These strategies are designed to give players the best possible odds of winning over time.
One popular strategy is known as ‘basic strategy.’ This involves making decisions based on predetermined rules about when to hit, stand, double down or split pairs. By following these rules consistently over time, players can reduce the house edge (the statistical advantage held by the casino) and increase their chances of winning.
Another important concept related to EV is ‘variance.’ This refers to how much your actual results deviate from your expected results over time. In other words, even if you’re making decisions with a positive expected value in blackjack (such as standing on 20), there will still be some level of variance involved – meaning that you’ll sometimes win more or less than you might expect.
Understanding the concept of EV and variance is crucial for anyone looking to become a serious blackjack player. By being aware of the long-term probabilities involved in every decision, you can make more informed choices at the table and increase your chances of coming out ahead. So next time you hear someone talking about EV in relation to blackjack, you’ll know exactly what they’re referring to – and why it matters.
