What Is Deviation in Blackjack?

In blackjack, deviation is when the expected value of a hand differs from the average value of that hand. This can happen when the player is dealt an unusually high number of low cards, or when the player is dealt an unusually high number of high cards.

Deviation can also occur when the player is dealt an unusually high number of aces, or when the player is dealt an unusually high number of 10-value cards.

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When deviation occurs, it can have a significant impact on the outcome of the hand. If the player is dealt an unusually high number of low cards, they are more likely to bust. If the player is dealt an unusually high number of high cards, they are more likely to win. Deviation can also impact the house edge in blackjack.

PRO TIP:When playing Blackjack, Deviation is a measure of how far away from the expected play a player’s action was. Deviation measures the difference between what a player chose to do (Hit, Stand, Double Down etc.) and what would have been statistically the best move in that situation. This is often used to gauge a player’s skill level, as higher deviations generally indicate poorer play.

If the player is dealt an unusually high number of aces, they will have a higher chance of winning. If the player is dealt an unusually high number of 10-value cards, they will have a lower chance of winning.

While deviation can have a significant impact on the outcome of a blackjack hand, it is important to remember that it is not always indicative of what will happen on the next hand. Just because a player was dealt an unusually high number of low cards on one hand does not mean that they will necessarily bust on the next hand.

Similarly, just because a player was dealt an unusually high number of high cards on one hand does not mean that they will automatically win on the next hand. Deviation should be taken into account when making blackjack decisions, but it should not be used as the sole basis for those decisions.