Variance is a term that is commonly used in poker, but what does it actually mean? In simple terms, variance refers to the degree of variation or dispersion of the results of a set of poker hands.
The game of poker involves a significant amount of luck, and as a result, even the best players in the world can experience long periods of time where they are losing money. This is where variance comes into play. Variance can be both positive and negative, meaning that players can experience extended periods of winning just as easily as they can experience extended periods of losing.
To understand variance in poker, it’s important to first understand the concept of expected value (EV). Expected value refers to the amount of money that a player can expect to win or lose on average over a large number of hands. This is calculated by taking into account all possible outcomes and their respective probabilities.
For example, if a player has a 50% chance of winning $100 and a 50% chance of losing $50, their EV for that hand would be ($100 x 0.5) – ($50 x 0.5) = $25. This means that over a large number of hands, the player can expect to make an average profit of $25 per hand.
However, due to variance in poker, this expected value is not always realized in the short term. The actual results from each individual hand can vary greatly from what is predicted by EV. This means that even if a player has an overall positive EV over thousands of hands, they may still experience long periods where they are losing money due to bad luck.
One way to visualize variance in poker is through the use of graphs. A graph known as a “variance simulator” can show how much variation there can be in results over different sample sizes. For example, if we look at a graph with 10,000 hands plotted out on the x-axis, we may see that a player’s results can vary from being up $5,000 to being down $5,000 over that sample size.
It’s important to note that variance is not an excuse for poor play or bad decisions. While luck plays a significant role in poker, skill and strategy are also crucial factors in determining long-term success. Experienced players understand the concept of variance and are able to manage their bankroll appropriately to ride out the inevitable swings of good and bad luck.
In conclusion, variance is a fundamental concept in poker that refers to the degree of variation or dispersion of results over a set of hands. It can be both positive and negative and is caused by the inherent luck involved in the game. While it can be frustrating to experience extended periods of losing due to variance, it’s important for players to understand that luck will even out over time and that skill and strategy are ultimately what determine long-term success at the poker table.
