Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world. A game of chance that involves a dealer and one or more players, blackjack has been around for centuries.
The objective of the game is to have a hand that totals 21 or as close to 21 as possible without going over. But what exactly is the expected value of blackjack? Let’s take a closer look.
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Expected value (EV) is a term used in probability theory that refers to the long-term average outcome of a random event. In blackjack, EV can be calculated using basic strategy and knowledge of the odds of winning each hand.
To calculate EV in blackjack, we must first understand how the game works. Each player is dealt two cards face up, while the dealer receives one card face up and one card face down. Players then have the option to hit (take another card), stand (keep their current hand), double down (double their bet and receive one more card), or split (separate their two cards into two hands).
The goal of each player is to beat the dealer’s hand by having a higher total without going over 21. A player’s hand can be worth anywhere from 2-11 points for each card with face cards being worth ten points and an ace being worth either one or eleven points depending on what’s best for their hand.
So how do we calculate EV? First, we need to know the odds of winning each hand based on our current total and the dealer’s upcard. This can be done by referencing basic strategy charts which show which action to take based on different scenarios.
For example, if we have a total of 16 and the dealer has an upcard of 6, we should hit because our chances of winning are greater than if we stand. On average, hitting in this scenario will result in us winning approximately 23% of the time while standing will only result in us winning approximately 16% of the time.
Once we have the odds of winning for each possible hand, we can calculate the expected value by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount we stand to gain or lose. For example, if we bet $10 and have a 23% chance of winning $10 and a 77% chance of losing $10, our expected value would be:
(0.23 * $10) + (0.77 * -$10) = -$1.40
This means that over a large number of hands, we can expect to lose an average of $1.40 per hand in this scenario.
Of course, calculating EV in blackjack is not as simple as plugging in numbers to a formula. There are many variables at play including the number of decks being used, the specific rules at each casino, and even the skill level of other players at the table.
However, by using basic strategy and understanding the odds of winning each hand, players can make informed decisions that will increase their chances of winning and decrease their overall expected losses.
In conclusion, while there is no guaranteed way to win at blackjack, understanding expected value is an important step towards becoming a successful player. By using basic strategy and calculating EV for different scenarios, players can make informed decisions that will increase their chances of coming out ahead in the long run.
