What Are the Odds of a Blackjack Dealer Busting?

Most blackjack games use four, six, or eight decks of cards. The dealer “busts” when his or her cards total more than 21.

The odds of the dealer busting are greatest when the dealer is showing a “hard” hand, meaning one without an ace or with an ace that can only be counted as 1.

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PRO TIP:When the dealer is showing a card value from 2 to 6, they are more likely to bust than if they are showing a card value of 7 or higher. This is due to the fact that they must hit on any hand total of 16 or less, while standing on 17 or higher. Therefore, when the dealer is showing a low card, it’s best to stay in the game and hope for a bust.

The following table shows the odds of the dealer busting for each possible upcard. The numbers are based on a four-deck game in which the player cannot re-split pairs or draw to split aces.

Upcard Odds of Busting
2 11%
3 12%
4 13%
5 14%
6 15%
7 16%
8 17%
9 18%
10 19%
Ace 20%

The odds of the dealer busting are greatest when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6, and least when the dealer is showing an ace.

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