What Is Positive EV in Blackjack?

If you’re a fan of playing blackjack, then you’ve probably heard the term “positive EV” thrown around before. But what exactly does it mean? In this article, we’ll dive deep into the concept of positive EV in blackjack and explore how it can impact your overall success at the table.

First things first, let’s define what EV is. In the world of gambling, EV stands for “expected value.”

Essentially, it’s a way to measure the average outcome of a given situation over a long period of time. In blackjack specifically, EV is used to determine whether a particular play or strategy is likely to be profitable or not.

So how does positive EV fit into all of this? Simply put, if a play or strategy has positive EV, it means that it’s expected to yield a profit over time. Conversely, if something has negative EV, it’s expected to result in a loss.

Now that we have an understanding of what positive EV means, let’s take a look at some examples in the context of blackjack. One classic example is when you have an ace and another card that adds up to 10 (i.e.

a 10 or face card). This is commonly referred to as a “natural” blackjack and typically pays out at 3-to-2 odds.

Assuming you’re playing with standard rules and no additional bonuses or variations, hitting on this hand would have negative EV because there are only four cards that will improve your hand (the other three 10s and the remaining ace). However, standing on this hand has positive EV because you’re already guaranteed to win unless the dealer also has a natural blackjack.

Another example where positive EV comes into play is when doubling down on certain hands. Doubling down allows you to double your initial bet in exchange for receiving one additional card. Some hands are considered strong enough to warrant doubling down because they have high probabilities of improving with just one additional card.

For instance, if you have a total of 11 (i. a 6 and a 5), doubling down is typically considered a positive EV play because there are nine cards out of the remaining deck that will give you a strong hand (any of the four remaining 10s, plus any of the four remaining aces).

However, if you have a total of 12 (i. a 10 and a 2), doubling down would be considered negative EV because there are only four cards that can improve your hand (the other two 10s and the remaining two aces).

It’s worth noting that positive EV plays aren’t always the most exciting or glamorous ones. In fact, they can often be quite conservative or even counterintuitive.

For example, hitting on soft 18 (i. an ace and a 7) against the dealer’s 9, 10, or ace is generally considered positive EV even though it may seem like a risky move at first glance.

So why is understanding positive EV important in blackjack? Simply put, it can help you make more informed decisions at the table and ultimately improve your overall success rate. By identifying which plays have positive EV and which ones don’t, you can increase your chances of coming out ahead in the long run.

To wrap things up, let’s review some key takeaways about positive EV in blackjack:

– Positive EV refers to plays or strategies that are expected to yield profits over time. – Negative EV refers to plays or strategies that are expected to result in losses.

– Examples of positive EV plays include standing on natural blackjacks and doubling down on certain hands. – Positive EV plays aren’t always the most exciting or intuitive ones. – Understanding positive EV can help improve your success rate at the blackjack table.

So next time you find yourself at the blackjack table, keep these concepts in mind as you make your decisions. With a little bit of practice and patience, you’ll be able to identify positive EV plays like a pro and increase your chances of winning big.