How Is Expected Value Calculated in Blackjack?

Blackjack is a popular casino game that has been played for centuries. The game involves comparing cards between the player and dealer, with the goal of getting as close to 21 points without going over. One important concept in blackjack is expected value, which is used to determine the average outcome of a particular hand or strategy.

Expected value, also known as EV, is a mathematical concept that calculates the long-term average result of a particular action or event. In blackjack, EV is used to determine whether a specific play or betting strategy will be profitable in the long run. To calculate EV in blackjack, you must first understand the basic rules and gameplay.

In blackjack, each card has a point value. Number cards are worth their face value (2-10), face cards (king, queen, jack) are worth 10 points each, and an ace can be worth either 1 or 11 points.

The objective of the game is to get closer to 21 points than the dealer without going over. If you exceed 21 points (known as busting), you lose automatically.

To calculate expected value in blackjack, you need to take into account several variables such as your hand value, dealer’s up card and potential outcomes based on different strategies for playing your hand.

For example – let’s say you have been dealt two cards- one Jack and one seven – adding up to seventeen in total. The dealer’s up card is a six. Based on basic strategy – which provides players with an optimal move based on their hand and dealer’s card – players should stand with this hand since it has a high probability of winning against the dealer’s weaker upcard.

So what’s the expected value associated with standing with this hand? We know that there are only five possible outcomes when we stand: we win (+1), we lose (-1), we tie (0), we get paid out at blackjack (+1.5) or we lose to the dealer’s blackjack (-1.5). We also know the probabilities associated with each of these outcomes based on the specific rules being played.

For example, if we assume that our seventeen was made up of a ten and a seven (since it’s more likely than being made up of a nine, eight or seven and an ace), then there are 16 cards in the deck that could help us to improve our hand (any 10 or ace). There are also 36 cards that wouldn’t help us at all, and any other card would cause us to bust.

Based on this information, we can calculate the expected value of standing with our hand assuming that we play out every possible outcome over an infinite number of hands. Using this approach, we can calculate that the expected value for standing with a player total of seventeen against dealer six is +0.368.

In conclusion, expected value is a key concept in blackjack strategy. By calculating EV for different hands and strategies, players can make informed decisions about how to play their hand to maximize their chances of winning in the long run. Keep in mind though – expected value only deals with long-term averages and does not guarantee you will win each time you play!